Today is Remembrance Day in Britain, and apart from reflecting on my family’s involvement in the Royal Navy and the RAF that stretches back 300 years, I’m also mindful of how the conflicts they served in played out. When America got involved in the World Wars of the 20th century they wanted to win them as quickly as possible, and so decisively there was no prospect of a repeat from the same enemy. This contrasts greatly with the West’s current attitude to Ukraine, we’ve supported the country enough for it to avoid total defeat, but our lack of commitment has allowed Russia to become entrenched, now it believes it can make its territorial gains permanent, thanks to millions and millions of treaty-defying mines.
Russia has been inept and predictable, it’s sustained huge losses, but Ukraine has never had the resource to drive Russia out and complete a total victory. In retrospect the lack of commitment towards Ukraine in the second half of 2022, when it became obvious Russia couldn’t win, has cost Ukraine dear.
Russia used all of last winter to fortify its defensive line heavily, it hopes it can dig in and keep the 15% of Ukraine it occupies forever, just like it has a permanent presence in Georgia and Moldova. In Ukraine’s counteroffensive so far it’s nibbled away at a few points – the Robotyne pocket, crossing the Dnipro by Krynky, and regaining ground South of Bakhmut, but it’s well short of the major territorial advances this time last year. Ukraine’s in a bit of a bind, what to do?
Some pundits have railed against the prospect of the West encouraging Ukraine to go to the negotiating table, they know Russia is a bad faith actor and is looking for the same result it got in those other countries. Personally I see Moldova and Georgia as an extreme end of the spectrum, they are being occupied by Russia and yet there is no resistance against them whatsoever, I cannot conceive off Ukrainians accepting the same fate. Nevertheless, the prospect of Ukraine becoming some sort of frozen conflict, must to Russia’s satisfaction, is something we have to work against.
He who hesitates is lost
Why has the West been so reluctant to ratchet up the support tap? There are two theories – one is that the West genuinely believes Russia’s bluster and threats and an escalation involving chemical and nuclear weapons is a genuine possibility. Seeing as that hasn’t happened in 20 months now, we can now discount the bioweapons/nuclear option. The other theory is that Russia is losing a phenomenal amount of equipment and personnel with the status quo this has turned into the best ever proxy war ever for the West. Eventually Russia will concede and will have lost 15 – 20 years worth of equipment and will be neutered for a generation.
Whatever the thinking, it’s not helping Ukraine towards a decisive victory and the world is evolving into a more dangerous place. The Israel/Hamas conflict has flagged up the notion of The Axis of Resistance – Russia, Syria, North Korea, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. It’s a number of totalitarian repressive regimes and terrorist non-state groups that now supply weapons to each other, train each other and co-ordinate attacks against a common enemy.
Listen to the representatives of Hamas, they sound very confident, they genuinely believe they can wipe Israel off the map. Look at the long range pot shots from the Houthis against Israel and the attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria by Iranian backed militias. Their tails are up and believe they can attack without serious consequences. I believe this is partly because Ukraine/Russia is a festering conflict where the West has failed to assert primacy over Russia.
Axis of Resistance – a challenge to the West
If Russia does obtain anything tangible out of the conflict with Ukraine – any additional territory – it will be a triumph of the will. They’re not skilled, they’re not clever, their tactics are blunt and predictable, they will only win because they’ve been persistent and patient and they want to occupy swathes of Ukraine more than the West wants to push them out. From a long term strategic point of view, making sure that Russia lost at the start of the war was a means to stopping Russia from rolling over into other conflicts with other countries in Eastern Europe – the Baltic States and Poland. Now the consequences are even wider, Russia must be crushed and devastated so that the Axis of Resistance falters.
We have to be realistic about how much more support Ukraine needs. So far in the Ukrainian War Russia has lost several hundred thousand men dead, several hundred thousand seriously injured and perhaps more than a million young people have fled the country. This doesn’t seem to have dented support for the war much. Russians don’t value human life highly, the heavy losses are discounted in Moscow and St Petersburg because they’re lowlifes or not caucasian. Russia has been steadily drawing on its prison population. I went to look up the number, if it was pro rata the same with the UK it would be around 200,000, it isn’t, it’s 430,000. There still so much meat to feed into the meat grinder, so many Russians that its society won’t miss. At the start of the war people in Ukraine and the West thought that Russia’s heavy losses would really affect the direction of the conflict. It has, but not how we assumed – now there’s loads of raw recruits with only basic training because most of the experienced troops have been killed or maimed. We expected outrage and sorrow at the loses, we expected reluctance to join the armed forces, that hasn’t happened. That being the case, the West has to up its game in order to turn the tide because the Russian losses so far have been easily absorbed.
How nations can help Ukraine now
The good news for Ukraine is that with the arrival of F-16s next year there aren’t big gaps in its technological capability, it just needs a lot more of everything. From the basics – bullets, machine guns, night sights, RPGs – through to the big stuff – air defences, long range precision missiles and fighter jets. Other than using drones, Russia’s tactics in this war haven’t deviated away from its traditional fighting doctrine – it’s very keen on using tanks, armoured cars and short range artillery. Pound and pound away at a city with more than a million shells until it’s mostly rubble. That being the case, we already have a good idea what tactics Russia will deploy in 2024 and what Ukraine needs to counterattack.
With the ongoing uncertainty in America when it comes to support for Ukraine – either through a Republican president that isn’t supportive, or through efforts to shut government down, it’s important that the rest of the West fills the gap. That’s the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the European NATO counties. Even without US support, European and Commonwealth countries really should offer enough support to help Ukraine win, collectively those countries have a bigger population, and bigger economies than Russia. Let’s show Russia how strong we are and that its dream of recreating the Soviet Union by force is over!
What you can do to help
There are various ways in which we can help Ukraine as individuals. At the start of the conflict several hundred thousand families threw open their doors and have accommodated Ukrainians throughout Europe – fantastic work. It’s difficult to offer that for years on end, but there are still ways to make a difference. At the moment donations are dropping off but we need to carry on offering support, especially as Winter approaches and Russia tries to knock out Ukraine’s essential utility infrastructure. There are various Government and NGO fundraisers ongoing, I’ve provided links to the Unicef, Red Cross and UK Government ones at the bottom.
In the longer term, leading a low carbon lifestyle stops the Axis of Resistance in its tracks. Walking and cycling, installing solar panels and heatpumps, getting loft insulation – anything that reduces your oil and gas use makes it harder for the demagogues in Kremlin and Tehran to realise their imperialist and repressive aims.
Useful links:
https://www.dec.org.uk/appeal/ukraine-humanitarian-appeal
https://kyivindependent.com/membership/
My previous blogs on Ukraine:
Many thanks to the reporters, military experts and political leaders who educate and inform about the Ukraine – Russia War:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: @ZelenskyyUa
Illia Ponomarenko: @IAPonomarenko
Kira Rudik: @kiraincongress
John Sweeney: @johnsweeneyroar
Mike Martin: @ThreshedThought
Phillips O’Brien: @PhillipsPOBrien
Michael Weiss: @michaeldweiss
Michael MacKay: @mhmck
Oz Katerji: @OzKaterji
Mark Hertling: @MarkHertling
Ben Hodges: @general_ben
Mick Ryan: @WarintheFuture
Dimitri: @wartranslated
Oryx: @oryxspioenkop
Chuck Pfarrar: @ChuckPfarrer
War Monitor: @WarMonitor3
returnoftheliberal 