Arm Ukraine Now – defeat the Axis of Resistance

Today is Remembrance Day in Britain, and apart from reflecting on my family’s involvement in the Royal Navy and the RAF that stretches back 300 years, I’m also mindful of how the conflicts they served in played out. When America got involved in the World Wars of the 20th century they wanted to win them as quickly as possible, and so decisively there was no prospect of a repeat from the same enemy. This contrasts greatly with the West’s current attitude to Ukraine, we’ve supported the country enough for it to avoid total defeat, but our lack of commitment has allowed Russia to become entrenched, now it believes it can make its territorial gains permanent, thanks to millions and millions of treaty-defying mines.
Russia has been inept and predictable, it’s sustained huge losses, but Ukraine has never had the resource to drive Russia out and complete a total victory. In retrospect the lack of commitment towards Ukraine in the second half of 2022, when it became obvious Russia couldn’t win, has cost Ukraine dear.
Russia used all of last winter to fortify its defensive line heavily, it hopes it can dig in and keep the 15% of Ukraine it occupies forever, just like it has a permanent presence in Georgia and Moldova. In Ukraine’s counteroffensive so far it’s nibbled away at a few points – the Robotyne pocket, crossing the Dnipro by Krynky, and regaining ground South of Bakhmut, but it’s well short of the major territorial advances this time last year. Ukraine’s in a bit of a bind, what to do?
Some pundits have railed against the prospect of the West encouraging Ukraine to go to the negotiating table, they know Russia is a bad faith actor and is looking for the same result it got in those other countries. Personally I see Moldova and Georgia as an extreme end of the spectrum, they are being occupied by Russia and yet there is no resistance against them whatsoever, I cannot conceive off Ukrainians accepting the same fate. Nevertheless, the prospect of Ukraine becoming some sort of frozen conflict, must to Russia’s satisfaction, is something we have to work against.

President Zelensky – has asked the West for more, he knows Russia won’t stop until it’s routed

He who hesitates is lost
Why has the West been so reluctant to ratchet up the support tap? There are two theories – one is that the West genuinely believes Russia’s bluster and threats and an escalation involving chemical and nuclear weapons is a genuine possibility. Seeing as that hasn’t happened in 20 months now, we can now discount the bioweapons/nuclear option. The other theory is that Russia is losing a phenomenal amount of equipment and personnel with the status quo this has turned into the best ever proxy war ever for the West. Eventually Russia will concede and will have lost 15 – 20 years worth of equipment and will be neutered for a generation.
Whatever the thinking, it’s not helping Ukraine towards a decisive victory and the world is evolving into a more dangerous place. The Israel/Hamas conflict has flagged up the notion of The Axis of Resistance – Russia, Syria, North Korea, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. It’s a number of totalitarian repressive regimes and terrorist non-state groups that now supply weapons to each other, train each other and co-ordinate attacks against a common enemy.
Listen to the representatives of Hamas, they sound very confident, they genuinely believe they can wipe Israel off the map. Look at the long range pot shots from the Houthis against Israel and the attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria by Iranian backed militias. Their tails are up and believe they can attack without serious consequences. I believe this is partly because Ukraine/Russia is a festering conflict where the West has failed to assert primacy over Russia.

Axis of Resistance – a challenge to the West
If Russia does obtain anything tangible out of the conflict with Ukraine – any additional territory – it will be a triumph of the will. They’re not skilled, they’re not clever, their tactics are blunt and predictable, they will only win because they’ve been persistent and patient and they want to occupy swathes of Ukraine more than the West wants to push them out. From a long term strategic point of view, making sure that Russia lost at the start of the war was a means to stopping Russia from rolling over into other conflicts with other countries in Eastern Europe – the Baltic States and Poland. Now the consequences are even wider, Russia must be crushed and devastated so that the Axis of Resistance falters.
We have to be realistic about how much more support Ukraine needs. So far in the Ukrainian War Russia has lost several hundred thousand men dead, several hundred thousand seriously injured and perhaps more than a million young people have fled the country. This doesn’t seem to have dented support for the war much. Russians don’t value human life highly, the heavy losses are discounted in Moscow and St Petersburg because they’re lowlifes or not caucasian. Russia has been steadily drawing on its prison population. I went to look up the number, if it was pro rata the same with the UK it would be around 200,000, it isn’t, it’s 430,000. There still so much meat to feed into the meat grinder, so many Russians that its society won’t miss. At the start of the war people in Ukraine and the West thought that Russia’s heavy losses would really affect the direction of the conflict. It has, but not how we assumed – now there’s loads of raw recruits with only basic training because most of the experienced troops have been killed or maimed. We expected outrage and sorrow at the loses, we expected reluctance to join the armed forces, that hasn’t happened. That being the case, the West has to up its game in order to turn the tide because the Russian losses so far have been easily absorbed.

The first documented use of the much-vaunted ATACMS missile, Ukraine needs dozens more of these attacks to win the war outright

How nations can help Ukraine now
The good news for Ukraine is that with the arrival of F-16s next year there aren’t big gaps in its technological capability, it just needs a lot more of everything. From the basics – bullets, machine guns, night sights, RPGs – through to the big stuff – air defences, long range precision missiles and fighter jets. Other than using drones, Russia’s tactics in this war haven’t deviated away from its traditional fighting doctrine – it’s very keen on using tanks, armoured cars and short range artillery. Pound and pound away at a city with more than a million shells until it’s mostly rubble. That being the case, we already have a good idea what tactics Russia will deploy in 2024 and what Ukraine needs to counterattack.
With the ongoing uncertainty in America when it comes to support for Ukraine – either through a Republican president that isn’t supportive, or through efforts to shut government down, it’s important that the rest of the West fills the gap. That’s the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the European NATO counties. Even without US support, European and Commonwealth countries really should offer enough support to help Ukraine win, collectively those countries have a bigger population, and bigger economies than Russia. Let’s show Russia how strong we are and that its dream of recreating the Soviet Union by force is over!

Odesa Yacht Club – every major city in Ukraine bears the scars of Russian aggression

What you can do to help
There are various ways in which we can help Ukraine as individuals. At the start of the conflict several hundred thousand families threw open their doors and have accommodated Ukrainians throughout Europe – fantastic work. It’s difficult to offer that for years on end, but there are still ways to make a difference. At the moment donations are dropping off but we need to carry on offering support, especially as Winter approaches and Russia tries to knock out Ukraine’s essential utility infrastructure. There are various Government and NGO fundraisers ongoing, I’ve provided links to the Unicef, Red Cross and UK Government ones at the bottom.
In the longer term, leading a low carbon lifestyle stops the Axis of Resistance in its tracks. Walking and cycling, installing solar panels and heatpumps, getting loft insulation – anything that reduces your oil and gas use makes it harder for the demagogues in Kremlin and Tehran to realise their imperialist and repressive aims.

Useful links:

https://www.dec.org.uk/appeal/ukraine-humanitarian-appeal

https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/ukraine-crisis-appeal?c_code=175151&c_source=google&c_name=Ukraine%20Crisis%20Appeal&adg=&c_creative=generic&c_medium=cpc&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3rD90oS8ggMViM13Ch1RPwDpEAAYASAAEgJ6mPD_BwE

Donate now to protect children in Ukraine

https://kyivindependent.com/membership/

My previous blogs on Ukraine:

Russia & Ukraine – what next?

Russia: Close to breaking point?

Many thanks to the reporters, military experts and political leaders who educate and inform about the Ukraine – Russia War:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: @ZelenskyyUa


Illia Ponomarenko: @IAPonomarenko


Kira Rudik: @kiraincongress


John Sweeney: @johnsweeneyroar


Mike Martin: @ThreshedThought


Phillips O’Brien: @PhillipsPOBrien


Michael Weiss: @michaeldweiss


Michael MacKay: @mhmck


Oz Katerji: @OzKaterji


Mark Hertling: @MarkHertling


Ben Hodges: @general_ben


Mick Ryan: @WarintheFuture


Dimitri: @wartranslated


Oryx: @oryxspioenkop


Chuck Pfarrar: @ChuckPfarrer


War Monitor: @WarMonitor3

Russia & Ukraine – what next?

Back in March I wrote a blog about the Ukraine – Russia war in which I stated that Russia had made a big mistake in invading Ukraine and that eventually this would backfire on Russia spectacularly. While the current regime in Russia persists, my prediction came close to coming true, with the abortive coup by Wagner forces in late June. When Russia fights a war and it goes wrong sometimes there is outright revolution (1917), and sometimes there is insurrection that goes nowhere (1905). We’ve reached the 1905 stage, but the war’s not over yet so there’s still time for the proletariat to crack their knuckles, get out of bed and head over to the Finland Station. In this blog I’ll take a look at what’s happened in the last six months, and what we’re likely to see in the next six months . . .

Rewind back to March – Russian personnel and tank losses were already huge. Source: Kyiv Independent

2023: goodbye to Russian artillery
In my last blog I stated that it had become obvious that Russia is unable to achieve its primary war aim – invading the whole of Ukraine. It sustained so many losses that its assaults on Kyiv and Kharkiv had to be aborted. It tried to establish air superiority and failed – the training, strategy and capability of its air forces when up against a near equivalent have been brutally exposed. Since March the front lines haven’t moved much, however that has a lot to do with Russia putting a lot of resource into constructing multiple lines of defence – trenches and mines. Millions of anti-personnel and anti-tank mines strewn across the 600-mile front line. Russia’s choice to carpet Ukraine in mines is an admission it no longer has the capability to advance much, and it hopes to create a frozen conflict, much like it did in the Donbas in 2014. It’s reduced to hoping it can hold what it has.
The extensive Russian fortifications has succeeded in slowing the war down, we’re not seeing the lightning grabs of territory by Ukraine that we saw last year. At the moment the conflict is static, rather than frozen. It is not frozen because it is a still a high intensity conflict with significant casualties and loss of equipment on both sides. In turning the 2023 phase of the war into a static conflict the Russians have to an extent played into Ukraine’s hands in the long run. Ukraine has thanks to western help got a better long-range artillery capability and the Ukrainians are finding it easy to strike Russia’s artillery lines, because they are not mobile. If 2022 was the year of smashing up Russia’s tanks, 2023 will be the year of smashing up Russia’s artillery.

Today’s tally – Russia has lost a significant amount of artillery, rocket launchers and special equipment – bridge building, de-mining and electronic warfare stations – in the last six months

While Russia does adapt to changing circumstances – it engages in cyber warfare and uses drones – on the frontline it remains keen on deploying the tools that worked in World War II – tanks, armoured cars and artillery, lots of it. At the end of 1945 it inflicted more damage on Berlin in three months of shelling than the RAF and USAF had in six years. Russia likes that kind of wanton destruction. Because Ukraine has destroyed so many tanks and armoured cars Russia effectively has very little go forward. Eventually there will be a similar tipping point with artillery and Russia will find it harder to repel probing attacks on the front line for want of basic low tech artillery firepower.

Vladimir Putin with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. The attempted coup in June was effectively the crescendo of a bitter rivalry between Shoigu and Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. Shoigu is widely thought of as an ineffective minister but has been part of the Russian government since 1991. Never underestmate his staying power!

How the conflict has evolved this year
If we’re being kind to Russia, what are the positives? Its regime is still intact, despite the high social and economic costs of the war. It continues to be in the fight despite losing huge amounts of personnel and equipment. Its Plan B – creating a 600-mile line of defences – has to an extent worked so far. Ukraine’s positives – it is a phenomenally resourceful and intelligent country, developing new ways to attack its foe. Ukraine will be buoyed by its ability to send militia into Russia proper to carry out attacks. Its air defences have improved, Russia has hardly any precision guided missiles left and small number used are nearly all shot down. By contrast Ukraine has developed its own air war with small, cheap but highly effective drones. Ukraine has managed to strike Moscow and beyond. This means in theory it could hit Kursk, Volgograd, Kransnodar, Rostov – pretty much any major city in Western Russia if it wanted to.
Over time the drip, drip, drip of Western support has made it easier for Ukraine to contain Russia’s threat. Are there game changers on the horizon? What we know is eventually the Ukrainian Air Force will have F-16 fighter jets, albeit in small numbers. This will allow Ukraine to have a measure of specific and limited air superiority. The Russian Air Force has to an extent been neutered in this conflict, it may find it can’t even defend its own lines against being strafed by F-16s when Ukraine looks for a decisive breakthrough. Equally significant is the news this week that the US will send the ATACMS missile system to Ukraine. ATACMS have a range of up to 190 miles, in contrast to the 50-mile range of the HIMARS missiles currently used. The extra range means Ukraine could hit anywhere in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea. Crimea is crucial, for Russia this war is effectively about integrating Crimea into the Russian empire by establishing a land bridge across the whole of southern Ukraine – it doesn’t want Crimea to be an outpost. Once Ukraine pushes Russia out of Crimea, the rationale for holding onto the Donbas ceases to exist – game over.
There will be an ongoing debate about Western support for Ukraine – US could have given ATACMS several months ago – experts have been calling for them for months, what’s the hold up? There are perhaps two reasons. Firstly, despite Russia’s threats there is always mission creep in war and the slow-motion ratcheting up of support for Ukraine so far has not led to Russia taking the fight to outside of Ukraine. Secondly, while it would never be admitted publicly, you wouldn’t blame the US administration for seeing this conflict as the best proxy war ever. Russia has lost a huge amount of its military capability – the independent monitoring organisation Oryx has documented 12,000 Russian equipment losses so far. This contrasts with 93 in the Georgia – Russia war in 2008. Despite Russia’s sabre-rattling, every day it loses more hardware, at the moment it would take more than a decade for Russia to replace what it has lost, even with no sanctions and an international community willing to buy its hydrocarbons again. If, as is likely, the war comes to an end and Russia loses, it won’t have the capability to launch attacks of any substance for a generation. The more devastating the losses, the better.

Russia was spooked by aircraft losses early in the war it’s been very reluctant to launch sorties against Ukraine ever since

Next few months, what’s in store?
Just today in Britain we’ve seen a rather bizarre pronouncement by US General Mark Miley that Ukraine had a 30 – 45 day window of opportunity to make gains this year. That would take us to the end of October. His memory is clearly short – Ukraine made significant gains last November. Many pundits in the West have had a habit of underestimating Ukraine and overestimating Russia. Last year when Ukraine made breakthroughs they were sudden and unexpected. The frontline is very long – so far Ukraine has opened up a pocket south of Orikhiv – but it is fighting on multiple axes, so a surprise push could happen anywhere. Because of the multiple layers of defensive lines constructed by Russia it won’t be quick and easy for Ukraine, but it’s about to get harder for Russia. By early 2024 Ukraine will possess the best conventional weapons that it’s ever likely to get from its allies – the F16s and ATACMS will be superior to anything Russia has in its locker. Early 2024 will be difficult for Russia, commentators have suggested Russia is sitting tight, hoping for the political wind to blow in its direction in the West. Next year expect no change in Europe and a further mass installation of clean energy devices that lessen our dependency on gas. In the US the media is hyping up pro-Russia candidates at the moment. Worst case scenario is that the US either elects a super-isolationist or outright pro-Russian president. I’d put the chances at well less than 50%, however allies will plan for this worst case scenario. Expect Europe, the US under Biden, and other major allies such as Canada, Australia and Japan to contribute a significant weapons and ammo stockpile to Ukraine for the start of 2025, if the war is still going. If Russia is hoping for an opening that won’t be apparent until mid-2025, by which time its own capability will be about as strong as North Korea’s parliamentary democracy – i.e. not very.
What if we finally reach a tipping point and the Russian regime topples? Given the huge military losses and the economic damage being done to Russia it’s still possible. Many in the West fear this because it contains a lot of unknowable outcomes. Expect chaos – similar to that in Russia after 1991. Strong leaders like Putin often leave a vacuum behind, there is no succession plan in place because any credible rival groomed is a potential threat. Putin is often described as a gangster, in the aftermath of his passing Russia has a choice as to whether it wants to be run like a mafia or not. At least it will have a choice. I’m not nervous about regime change, while it’s difficult to see Russia morph into a liberal democracy, it’s even more unlikely to see a leader emerge so psychotic that it will use chemical or nuclear weapons against the West. We should always be vigilant about such threats but at the moment Russia every day is getting weaker and the West by supporting Ukraine is getting stronger.

Russia’s war machine – a progress update:

• Precision Guided Missiles: Aviation experts such as Aerospace magazine were quick to point out that Russia went into the war with low stocks of Precision Guided Missiles. This is because the Russians were so keen on launching them at civilian hospitals in Syria. Clearly they didn’t think this was going to be a problem but eventually their stockpile ran out at the end of 2022. Now they can only use a limited number of new missiles and 90% of them are taken out by Ukraine’s air defences. Karma’s a bitch Vlad! Verdict: depleted and neutered

• Tanks and Armoured Cars: Russia’s vast stocks of military vehicles have come off second best against European and American anti-tank missiles. There have been estimates that Russia started the war with as many as 12,000 tanks. We now know that Russia is bad at storage and maintenance so it won’t be able to deploy anywhere near that many. Tank and Armoured Car crews are highly skilled, specialist positions so Russia will be struggling to deploy experienced competent crews right now. Verdict: equipment and personnel heavily depleted

• Aircraft: Russia was clearly spooked by the heavy losses of fighter jets and helicopters at the start of the war. This is despite a huge numerical superiority. Important to note that Ukrainian pilots are as skilled as the Russians and use the same planes. Russia has not been willing to face off against a capable foe in the air and risk ground attacks too. Further proof that a fighter pilot is the most valuable asset across all armed forces, and Russia doesn’t have enough to succeed in Ukraine. Verdict: equipment and personnel a potential threat but effectively stood down

• Artillery and Rocket Launchers: 2023 has been the year where Ukraine has really sunk its teeth into Russia’s artillery. This is because Ukraine’s ranged artillery capability has improved and is now better than Russia’s, and the static front line has turned Russia’s guns into sitting ducks. This arming of Ukraine is the sort of thing that Western ‘experts’ used to fret about as an escalation – thankfully we’re well past that. Verdict: at current loss rates Russia’s artillery will reach the same level of depletion as their tanks in six months

Many thanks to the reporters, military experts and political leaders who educate and inform about the Ukraine – Russia War:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: @ZelenskyyUa
Illia Ponomarenko: @IAPonomarenko
Kira Rudik: @kiraincongress
John Sweeney: @johnsweeneyroar
Mike Martin: @ThreshedThought
Phillips O’Brien: @PhillipsPOBrien
Michael Weiss: @michaeldweiss
Michael MacKay: @mhmck
Oz Katerji: @OzKaterji
Mark Hertling: @MarkHertling
Ben Hodges: @general_ben
Mick Ryan: @WarintheFuture
Dimitri: @wartranslated
Oryx: @oryxspioenkop
Chuck Pfarrar: @ChuckPfarrer
War Monitor: @WarMonitor3