He jumped before he was pushed, Blackpool South MP Scott Benton resigned yesterday meaning he won’t be ejected from the House of Commons by a recall petition. Who says there’s no good news? In a crowded field Benton was one of the most abrasive and obnoxious MPs on the Government benches. This is the latest step in a long process of detoxifying parliament that will involve the ejection of a lot more Tory MPs later this year, hopefully. What we already know about the General Election is a large number of Tory MPs are set to stand down, on top of several that have already been ejected due to by elections – Warburton, Paterson, Johnson, Parish etc. I know it’s ungracious of me to celebrate the departure of Benton, Bone and Bridgen (not gone yet, but he has more chance of being the next James Bond than being re-elected), but they are part of a particularly boorish cohort of Conservative MPs that won’t be lamented. What informs their behaviour? Having the first significant majority since 1987 probably created a lot of hubris among Conservative ranks and quite frankly I expected them to become arrogant because of it. It’s also the case that we’ve been infected with identity politics since UKIP’s breakthrough in 2014 and that goes hand in hand with a populist mode that is confrontational, aggressive and vulgar. This has been really obvious in the media – for months on end during Johnson’s Premiership ministers simply didn’t turn up to TV interview requests. When the polls started going against the Tories they reappeared, either with a superior air (Adam Holloway, MP for Gravesham giving Newsnight unwanted advice on how to handle government ministers – Newsnight’s been on air since 1980, I think they’ve got the hang of it by now), or took part in car crash interviews (hello Matt Hancock, Liz Truss, Laura Trott, Michelle Donelan).
David Cameron on the day he’s elected leader of the Conservatives in 2005, part of an ongoing renewal process that right now involves bad apples being kicked out or voted out
Return to politics as normal? Whoever forms the next government, and it’s safe to assume it won’t be the Tories, will be faced by a huge set of economic and social problems. It won’t be possible to wave a magic wand over anything, however the change in the dramatis personae does matter. As I pointed out in my blog about Rejoining the EU last year, for any change in that relationship we need a wholesale change in our political elite and media landscape. The architects, instigators and implementors of Brexit need to be out of the picture, never to return, otherwise the EU will be very wary of any attempt to Rejoin, even if elements of the British public and our political class are keen. That process won’t be completed by the next election but if we want a new relationship with Europe it will be helped by the likes of Dominic Raab and Bill Cash standing down, and John Redwood and Elliot Colburn being voted out. Personally I’d prefer to live in a world where the increase in child poverty is much more important than a redesign of the England football kit. Will the shallow, superficial mindset of our popular press change after the next election? Almost certainly not, but hopefully cranks that are fixated on weights and measures will be banished to internet-only Talk TV or low-ratings big money loser GB News. There will always be a fervently Europhobic strain to British politics, however it could go from mainstream to fringe if the likes of Benton, Bone and Bridgen are not replaced.
Benton, Bone and Bridgen: not a provincial Solicitor’s firm, but a rogue’s gallery of where modern day Conservatism has gone spectacularly wrong
A lost weekend for the Tories Prior to Brexit, the last time the Conservatives had a major reset was during the Thatcher era, when the post-war political consensus and Keynesian economics were ditched for rampant free markets and monetarism. After Thatcher the party tacked away from her agenda but at a glacial pace under John Major. When the public made it clear they were sick of Thatcherism and Thatcherism lite under Major the Tories had a lost weekend with several leaders obviously not equipped to become Prime Minister – having a talent pool of under 200 MPs really did seem to make a difference. Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard were never going to win against Blair, it took the Tories a good eight years to get back on their feet again with David Cameron. We’ve seen a similar dynamic recently with five different Tory leaders in nine years, though this time they’ve been in power. Can the Tories afford to spin the leadership wheel several times in the next Parliament? They know if they make the wrong choice from a small talent pool they have no chance of winning in 2029. While I have no desire to see a Conservative revival, the party’s capacity for renewal is unmatched in the industrial world, which is partly why it’s in power 2/3rds of the time in Britain. Everyone on the progressive liberal left needs to be ready for it. A rebrand of the party will be much easier with the likes of Benton, Bone, Bridgen, and indeed Jenkinson, Gullis and Anderson out of the picture.
A young Iain Duncan Smith – signs that the Tory cupboard was bare in 2001
If the Tories are smart enough to move back towards the centre from next year onwards that will involve a new leader, a new shadow cabinet, and a slimmed down parliamentary party bereft of populists who are great at playing to three-pint heroes in Weatherspoons but little else. How that plays out is for us to be mindful of in 2025 and beyond, for now let’s celebrate a changing of the guard and maximise our opportunities in elections this year.
John Major – now remembered with affection but that didn’t stop one of the heaviest Conservative defeats in history
Heading for a wipeout – Sunak’s shortcomings The ruling party has an unelected leader who has never really been tested in life and shows all the worst qualities of a public school boy. So out of touch he thinks homeless queuing up at a soup kitchen have a chance of getting a job in the city, so clueless in the real world he doesn’t know how to pay for things with a contactless card, so oblivious to economic reality he thinks people aren’t bothering to start businesses because a regular paycheque is a ‘comfort zone’ (Sunak himself has worked for his father-in-law’s firm Catamaran Ventures – massive personal risk he took there). Either Sunak suffers from a massive lack of self-awareness or he’s surrounded by yes-men that leave him completely unequipped for any serious critique, because with his family connections he’s in no position to lecture people about the sharp end of capitalist risk and reward. Sunak is lacking for many things and his contrived energy and enthusiasm doesn’t compensate, he doesn’t resonate with the C1 and C2 social groups in the same way Boris Johnson did. In a strange historical parallel, John Major managed briefly to tap into Middle England thanks to his rejection of foreign food in the Treasury canteen and modest beginnings. By 1997 the same C1 and C2 groups had abandoned John Major too – for years the Conservatives had sold the masses a share owning and property owning dream. They were indifferent about the first, and suffered because of the latter. Years of high property costs eventually did for Major and the cost of living crisis will no doubt topple Sunak too – and maybe the reckoning will be even worse for Sunak as he would appear not to understand the basic pocketbook issues afflicting millions. His ministers and backbenchers aren’t helping either, giving unwanted poverty cope advice about avoiding branded products in the supermarket or believing it’s possible to make a square meal for 30p (spending only 30p on a meal would bring you down to the UN definition of absolute poverty – $2 a day, maybe go to somewhere like Rwanda with that budgetary advice). What has the Sunak administration got? Either it’s barefaced lies about 15 minute cities and enforced car sharing or trivial nonsense about things no one was asking for like alcohol duty restructuring, forced academisation of schools, or an NHS workforce plan. Either way it’s a chronic failure to effect any positive change for long in people’s lives – there’s the brief flowering of a progressive policy in the £20 Universal Credit uplift, only for it to be snatched away in an instant.
Since I’m celebrating The Beatles – There’s an orchestral breakdown in the middle of Band On The Run that feels like the mists clearing, a sense of liberation and relief the country will feel when the Tories are finally gone
The contrast with 1997 By the Spring of 1997 it’s fair to say that John Major developed a relaxed fatalistic attitude towards his electoral prospects, he’d actually presided over falling inflation, interest rates, and unemployment and living standards were on the rise. This didn’t matter to the millions who voted him out – they still remembered eye-popping interest rates and negative equity in the housing market, and continued public sector austerity. In 1996 the Conservatives spent only £700m on school buildings, in 2009 – 2010 Labour spent £10Bn, the massive uplift in part to compensate with the neglect shown in the 1979 – 1997 period. If we’re being generous to Major, what were the other positives? Progress with Northern Ireland, getting close to the Good Friday agreement that was eventually signed off in 1998. The National Lottery was introduced in 1994, with a remit of distributing a lot of the profits into sporting and cultural infrastructure and activities. It’s fair to say that National Lottery money has given a shot into the arm of the British film industry and elite sports, though these days we do have a multi billion £ maintenance backlog in municipal leisure centres and playing fields. Tasked with looking for the positives in the 2019 – 2024 parliament and I’m really wracking my brains. Living in a safe Conservative seat I know why people voted for them in 2015/2017/2019 – frozen council tax, low income tax, low inflation, low interest rates, rising house prices and frozen fuel duties. Now most of those don’t apply.
Olympic hero Joanna Rowsell – lottery money for elite sport a rare policy win
There is no positive economic legacy to speak of, I’m sure Conservatives will point to the vaccine roll and and furlough but the record on Covid is poor: we spent the most money, our economy went down the most and we ended up with one of the worst records in terms of excess deaths and long Covid in Europe. When it comes to long term ramifications this might be crucial, Labour picked up the ball in 1997 and ran with it, that meant the 2001 result was almost the same, an even bigger achievement than winning in the first place. Whoever wins next year – a majority Labour government or a Lab/Lib coalition will have to do a phenomenal turnaround job to generate much of a feel good factor in 2029. At the moment Labour is in the business of disappointing progressives, this is down to the fundamentals of our economic situation – no significant or long lasting growth, our public sector deficit is £137Bn and our debt interest repayments are £111Bn p.a., these payments will continue to weigh us down without credit rating upgrades and interest rate cuts – neither are on the horizon. At some point, however, Labour will have to pull some rabbits out the hat that are vaguely equivalent to the minimum wage, sure start nurseries, the hospital building programme, or the £22.5Bn phone licence auction windfall.
Liberal aspirations – a coalition deal or a voice of conscience What of my party, the Lib Dems in all of this? Current polling suggests a Labour landslide, what mitigates against this is a relative lack of enthusiasm for Labour beyond voting intention and still a relatively high number of don’t knows. So let’s assume there are two options on the table – either a strong Labour majority or a hung parliament with Labour as the largest single party. The Lib Dem aspiration for the next election is clear, win as many seats as possible, and that almost all of these will be gains from the Tories. Realistically we’re looking to progress from 15 seats to 40 seats and to make that net gain of 25 seats we’ll probably target 50. While many in the Labour movement remain hostile to our coalition legacy the fact is we can play a useful role knocking Tory MPs out of power in places Labour can’t touch such as Esher & Walton, Winchester, Cheltenham and Wokingham. If Labour wins a strong working majority and has no need of collaboration what role should the Lib Dems play? It can afford to be bold and point out how it would go further than what is a very timid and cautious brand of Labour. It hardly needs to change tack, we’re already ahead of Labour in calling for HS2 to be built in full, saying we’d end the two-child benefit cap, repeal the Voter ID law (for which Labour failed to turn up in the House of Lords), and scrap the shameful repressive Public Order Act (2023) and Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act (2022) which restrict peaceful protest in the UK. Occasionally Labour has been good enough to adopt Lib Dems policies on issues such as school meals and the Windfall Tax. With more MPs we’ll be in a position to be more vocal and more vigorous in our campaigning, which is how, despite being in opposition, MPs such as Wera Hobhouse can get legislation through parliament on issues such as workplace harassment and protection from invasive digital devices in the public realm.
I was at this Refugee Rights march earlier this year in Parliament Square, the Lib Dems and Socialist Worker Party turned up, mainstream Labour, Greens and Conservatives didn’t – indicative of the differences between us
Is there an opportunity that didn’t exist before? Certainly in the Home Counties there is a constituency of senior managers and small business owners who would be receptive to the Lib Dems message who would otherwise be natural Conservatives – these are the people frustrated and alienated by Partygate and the ongoing shambolic nature of Sunak’s administration that have to perform to a much higher standard in their own working lives. As cliched as it might sound, emphasising basic competence, moderation and a grown up style of politics appeals to this group now more than ever.
Apres Sunak, la deluge William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard are rare examples of Tory party leaders who never became Prime Minister. After 1997 the Conservatives spent quite some time flailing around looking for the next leader who might have the right stuff to lead the country. They eventually found him, but they had to lose three elections in the process. If the number of Tory MPs dips well below 200 then it’s possible that the talent pool will be limited and someone unsuited to the role will be chosen by default.
Sunak and Johnson – handing over a toxic social and economic legacy to the next Prime Minister
Considering that we’ve seen five Conservative leaders in eight years there is a danger for the party that 1) They pick a new leader popular with the members like Truss but a liability in the country, and 2) They stick with that leader because they have to show some commitment and stability after all the chaos we’ve endured. Those of us watching the Tories know that as long as they indulge in identity politics their own internal workings will be very volatile because Brexit isn’t delivering positive real world outcomes and that the nationalism involved in a policy like Brexit is actually very divisive. It’s led a number of high profile figures to leave the party who you’d assume would be carrying it forward – Stewart, Soubry, Grieve, Gymiah, Hammond etc. That bloodletting and instability will probably continue until the Conservatives stop being a Europhobic party. I know a few people are fearful of a more long term turn to the right within the Conservatives, but if they fail to rediscover their free enterprise, competition, pro-business mojo that will rebound more on them than anything else. The type of figure currently being touted as a leader after Sunak – Braverman, Badenoch, Mordaunt or Patel – how much cross-over appeal do they really have? None of us have perfect foresight, if the Tories do indeed lose the next election it’s hard to know what happens next but I’d be surprised if they regained a sense of direction and purpose that would resonate with enough voters to precipitate a quick bounce back. In that, at least, we’d be going right back to 1997.
Many of you will have seen a tweet by Rishi Sunak saying he took ‘long term decisions’ to boost Britain’s transport while travelling on a private jet (his normal mode of travel) and pandering to conspiracy theories about 15 minute cities this week. After Boris Johnson and Liz Truss most fair-minded observers didn’t think British politics could sink any lower. Correction: We hoped it couldn’t sink any lower, we were wrong. So private jet man has effectively sold the North of England down the river with his decision to axe HS2 North of Birmingham. It’s not the biggest surprise as HS2 has been steadily descoped in the past two years, but it’s still shocking that the biggest rail infrastructure project in the last 100 years has been canned (for now). Continental Europe has extensive high speed rail networks, why can’t we have the same? How did we get here?
Same old Tories, cancelling everything If we look at the last 13 years the Conservative record in the built environment is pretty shocking. It cut the extensive and long term Building Schools for the Future scheme the moment it took office, only pre-existing contracts were honoured. A few years later the Coalition government came up with a new school building programme, far more modest in scope and with a budget per school much reduced – headteachers from these new schools, in the Priority Schools Building Programme, have contacted me and told me about all the short cuts taken. Rishi Sunak talks of making long term decisions, but his Government is incapable of anything that takes persistence and patience. It’s failed to tackle chronic repairs backlogs affecting schools, hospitals, prisons, council houses, you name it, pretty much everything in the public sector estate. The path to Net Zero is a long one, increasingly it should not be problematic as the technology to decarbonise pretty much everything exists and the costs are coming down. Solar – prices down by 99.6% in 40 years, Wind – huge price drop and can be put out to sea, battery storage – massive price drop and using fewer raw materials, tidal stream – massive price drop, constant and predictable. Clean tech has a lot to boast about, but Sunak and other libertarian Tories aren’t listening, they’ve bought into the wackjob Net Stupid agenda instead. Don’t bother insulating homes to save lives and save money in the long term – it’s an effort. In the context of not being able to stick to any long term public sector building programmes or environmental commitments it’s no surprise that this government would not be able to oversee a project that was originally supposed to be completed in 2035. This is the hallmark of populism – a complete failure to deliver, a lot of posturing and constant drama about things under your nose, with no capability to do anything strategic.
Visions of a future unresolved – Euston, Sheffield and Birmingham HS2 stations
We’re not used to new railways The vast majority of Britain’s railway network was built in the 19th century with maybe a few bits built just before World War I, so the general public has got extremely used to the railway as a constant unchanging network, post Dr Beeching cuts. New stations and new track are a major novelty. To a great extent Network Rail is a victim of its own success. As we can see in the chart passenger numbers more than doubled from the point of privatisation in the mid-90s through to the immediate pre-pandemic level in 2019.
Rail passenger numbers more than doubled in the 25 years between 1995 and 2020, with virtually no new track added to the network
Throughout this time capacity has increased, that’s been achieved by putting on more services and increasing the number of carriages per train. In terms of physical infrastructure what changed was lengthening platforms and adding the odd chord here and there. Network Rail has avoided building substantial new track at all costs – it’s expansive and it’s unpopular. This gave off the impression that ever greater passenger numbers could be achieved with no new track forever. The plans for HS2, EastWest rail and Northern Powerhouse Rail are an indicator that’s no longer possible and we have a railway that’s bursting at the seams. The general public has to accept that if we want a successful and reliable railway network in the future, where we’re not packed in like sardines on all commuter lines, new track has to be built.
HS2Press coverage – mindless hostile drivel across the spectrum
A collective hatchet job by the written press You’ll never get universal agreement on infrastructure schemes, but the opposition to HS2 across the print media was something to behold. It’s not surprising that the right wing press has been hostile to HS2, they know public transport users tend to be left wing, and heavy use car drivers tend to be right wing. Britain is one of the most car dependent countries in Europe – let’s keep it that way. Also Europe is keen on high speed rail – they’ll be ramming their wine and truffles down our throats next! A steady stream of articles in the Mail, Express and Telegraph have said we ought build branch lines instead, that HS2 is an EU plot or focussed on the increasing costs, never the benefits. Perhaps the worst offender in the press, however, is The Guardian. The Guardian has run a number of hysterical hit-pieces about HS2 over the course of several years. Senior members of the Scott Trust must be thoroughly delighted that HS2’s Northern legs have been cancelled. The Guardian swallowed whole a misinformation campaign about the environmental impact of HS2. Often it seemed that they regurgitated press releases from anti-zealots with no investigation or questioning at all. An excellent forensic thread on twitter by Phil Sturgeon explains why the claim that HS2 destroyed 108 ancient woodlands is total nonsense. It is pretty astounding if you think about it – a 140-mile railway going through 108 separate wooded areas and they all happen to be ancient, one every mile or so. It turns out HS2 will, in fact, reduce our ancient woodland cover by about 50 acres. For perspective there’s a field between my village and the posh village next door, Hartley, which is 64 acres. Anyway, the higher ups at The Guardian must be dancing a jig, sabotaging HS2 is one of the only policy wins it’s enjoyed in 13 years. While its circulation isn’t the biggest, perhaps the hostility of The Guardian carried a lot of weight because press opposition to HS2 went across the spectrum and gave it a legitimacy it didn’t deserve.
Some experts such as Phil Sturgeon did an excellent job of debunking the misinformation surrounding HS2’s impact, unfortunately their voices weren’t heard
Lessons from HS1, lessons from Europe
Many people have, quite rightly, asked why HS2 has a cost per mile that far exceeds other high speed rail lines in Europe. Looking at France there are two major reasons. France is four times the size of England with roughly the same level of population. It’s pretty straightforward to route a high speed line between the major cities, outside of heading into the Massif Central. The population is sparse and the topography is easy to deal with, asset purchase costs are far lower.
Furthermore France is able to keep its costs down via a process of continuous construction. It’s had its nose to the high speed grindstone for 40 years, the acculumated knowledge and experience really helps. This is in stark contast to the UK’s chaotic stop – start politicised construction processes. One of the many startling revelations to emerge this week is that HS1 construction boss Rob Holden has never worked on HS2 and has never even been consulted, what little high speed rail project knowledge and experience we have has been left to wither on the vine.
It’s a fair question to ask if HS1 has lessons for HS2, compare and contrast – what you can pick up is that HS1 doesn’t have the gold-plated mitigation features HS2 has and is a bit more inclusive. By inclusive I mean that East Kent is covered by a station at Ashford and West Kent is covered off by Ebbsfleet. There is only 34 miles between the two stations and it takes 18 minutes travel time. It’s a fair question to ask if there would be value in having an extra station along the 140 mile London and Birmingham route on HS2? If so, surely some of the opposition in the Northern Home Counties would be far less, as they would feel included in the project.
One problem that exists in the UK is a large post-industrial landscape that we have to build over that doesn’t exist to the same extent in Continental Europe. This has jacked up costs significantly, the line between Birmingham and Manchester would have to feature extensive viaducts as the area is home to several former and current salt mines. We either accept that our industrial past complicates our infrastructure future or we sit on our hands forever more.
The benefits: communication breakdown Delving into the history of HS2, the project was originally conceived during Labour’s 2005 – 2010 parliament, with work carried forward by the coalition government, which firmed up details about the route. Cross-party consensus over project existed for a long time, perhaps that was a drawback because it led to a lack of debate and a lack of communication of the fundamental rationale for the project. The purpose of HS2 is create a new separate trackbed for a high capacity railway that in turn frees up capacity on other lines leading to improved freight and passenger services. There’s plenty of information on the HS2 website showing that, for example the line (if built in full), would greatly improve journey times between Newcastle and Birmingham. There were some headline figures quoted from time to time – the line would have a daily capacity of 576,000 passengers, but because HS2’s cheerleaders were half-hearted and ineffective they let the narrative get hijacked. Over and over again the reductive statement that we’re spending £100Bn to go from Birmingham to London 20 minutes quicker was trotted out. Rarely was an effective counter-narrative offered. There’s still no estimate, however, of how many passengers would benefit from the improved services created by the freed up capacity. I’ve got to hold my hand up at this point – I live just a few miles away from HS1, I benefit personally from its existence although I never use it – trains into London from my local station here in Kent run fast taking 30 minutes, before HS1 the fastest train was 40 minutes, the improvement is because HS1 has taken services off the Chatham main line freeing up capacity. The children of those who campaigned against HS1 in my local area now benefit from that swift service without a moment’s thought as to how it happened, I’m sure.
Taken from the HS2 website – the line built in full speeds up services leading to most major cities between London and Glasgow, Joe Public has no concept of this because it was never communicatedproperly
Covid – when the wind changed Covid 19 has been a disaster for our economy and our society in general, and it’s been terrible for the rail industry in particular. The long march of increasing passenger numbers has been stopped in its tracks, all future confidence in widespread use of trains has shattered. All of a sudden people are writing off railways and talking of working from home, and many aspects of human interaction ported to Zoom or Teams meetings online. Acute cost pressures in the construction industry – labour shortages and materials shortages have jacked up the estimates for HS2, though the chronic mismanagement, wanting to slow the pace of construction has undermined the project too. This is what Sunak is referring to when saying that the ‘facts changed’ around HS2. On the basis that HS2 is supposed to be a very long term project and in 100 years time teleportation and jetpacks won’t be mainstream technologies, we can be confident that the existing forms of ground transport will still be used, and used extensively. I’m happy to concede that train travel will take a five year hit from Covid, but as passenger numbers are now crawling back to pre-pandemic levels despite cuts in services this will not be the paradigm shift that pundits have predicted. Two things to note about internal Treasury calculations about HS2. Officials were alarmed that Sunak took control of cost:benefit analysis of the project while chancellor as he had no previous experience of transport analysis beforehand – this was probably obvious in the flawed methodology he employed. Furthermore Treasury officials are incredibly sniffy about any major projects that go from A to B where neither A or B is London. There’s a special set of calculations made for London, not merely on the basis that a lot of people use London transport but that a lot of rich and important people use it. Those using the improved Newcastle to Birmingham HS2 service matter less than those going from Kennington to Battersea Power Station on the new Northern Line extension. Not all British train passengers are created equal – suck it up whippet owners and pigeon fanciers! Anyway, new cost:benefit analyses put the Northern legs of HS2 below a value of 1. These calculations, if you’re Northern or from the Midlands, could be said to be heavily biased and supporters of rail infrastructure in the future will have to produce numbers to support the reopening of the project, if rail passengers numbers recover in the way they have in the last 18 months then a new case can be made. This week it seems like we’ve seen the beginning of the end for HS2 Northern – maybe it’s only the end of the beginning if enough people are willing to fight for it.
With the Local Elections approaching the Conservatives are riding low in the polls and are heading for another wipeout. This is not particularly surprising given their achievement-free record. Some pundits are rightly asking who would still vote for them, given their failure to deliver any tangible improvements to daily life? I can speak with some authority on this, living in a seat that has been Conservative for 99 years and currently has a 20,000 majority (Sevenoaks). Let’s take a look at those who constitute the genuine hard core of Conservatives, who’d still vote that way even if Britain started a nuclear war and came off 2nd best . . .
The tax fetishist In the Home Counties the social engineering wrought by an atomised, individualistic labour market with contractors and micro businesses has reached its logical conclusion. It’s a case of every man for himself and everything counts in large amounts. I know people who still think Gordon Brown is public enemy #1 because of his changes to the IR35 regulations. Tax matters, for some it’s the only thing that matters. During the coalition years these people were secretly very pleased as there was a slight income tax cut, Council Tax was frozen as was petrol excise duty. They still complain to me when the price of petrol goes up, but they know it would go up much, much more if Labour were in power. What’s in their pay packet and how much is deducted defines their politics. These are the people who kept the Conservative vote up in 2015 while the Lib Dems vote collapsed – austerity was for other people, low taxes were for me.
Gordon Brown – a bête noire to Conservative diehards, despite being the only British chancellor in history to avoid a global recession because – minor tax changes
The benefits obsessive The benefits obsessive is perhaps the most malevolent manifestation of the class system at work. Rabidly anti-Welfare State, they regularly get on a high horse about the fact that they know people who are out of work, claiming benefit and ‘aren’t looking hard enough for work’. Apparently this is a bigger problem than the guys from the rough end of my area who are in prison for murder, arson, people smuggling or GBH. Like many people who are prejudiced they know little about the subject matter or the scale of the ‘problem’, when pressed they don’t know how many people are out of work and claiming benefit, and throughout history they remain ignorant about the numerical value of Unemployment Benefit/Jobseekers’ Allowance or Universal Credit (a maximum of £77 a week if you’re over 25, a King’s Ransom eh). Judging those not in work, or maybe even those in part-time work receiving some benefits is psychologically very satisfying for some, and they will gloss over the fact that throughout history it’s been incredibly difficult to reach a state of ‘full employment’ (defined by Beveridge as 3% or under) – during the last 100 only the 1945 – 1965 period could be classed as such and that had a lot to do with receiving Marshall Aid at the time. Capitalism invariably involves success and failure, the kind of failure that involves bankruptcy or downsizing of firms. That doesn’t compute with the benefits obsessive, it’s always YOUR fault if you’re out of work.
The Conservative hardcore – a headscratcher to those on the progessive left – but they’re my neighbours!
The house price bore They say the seeds of defeat are sown in the moment of victory – that was certainly the case with New Labour and its approach to housing. In the 1990s Tony Blair was rightly focussed on crossing over to the C1, B and A social classes and that included people with mortgages or owned their house outright. His overtures to these demographics was successful at the time, but turned out to be very naive, allowing the social housing sector to atrophy away during his tenure. I guess Brown and Blair hoped homeowners would continue to vote Labour and on the face of it why wouldn’t they? Interest rates were low and house prices went up the whole time they were in power – it was a good time to own a house. The problem for opposition parties in the last few years is that householders now attribute ever rising prices to the Conservatives, the social housing sector has shrunk and people in the private rented sector move so often they are hard-to-reach and their turnout is low. A few years ago after the famous planning policy reset suggested my area should add 13,000 new homes a farmer applied to build 800 homes on a Greenfield site. In 40 years of living here I’ve never seen a campaign remotely like it – the posh village next to the site was apoplectic with rage. While many pretend to care about removal of green space, it’s really code for ‘chip away at the value of my house over my dead body’ – that’s the root of the ultra-NIMBYism that exists in the Green Belt, the force is incredibly strong and probably always will be. You might own an average-sized house, built in a standard architectural style with not much garden but it’s worth £650,000 because it’s 5 minutes away from the train station that goes to London and By God that inflated price makes you feel important!
The biggest community campaign in my area during my lifetime. The posh village down the road from me raged against the threat to green space (and their own house prices)
The social climber Perhaps the smallest group out of the hardcore but the most zealous – there’s nothing quite like a Conservative whose kids are the first generation from their family to go to a Public School. Like the tax fetishist, there is an element of monomania about them – their finances revolve around school fees, school fees and more school fees. It’s the only thing on their mind. Never mind that there are perfectly decent state schools where they live, delivering high 11+, GCSE or A Level pass rates, only the local prep school and follow on fee draining secondary school is good enough for little Timmy and Emily. I realise that not everyone who goes to Public School is authoritarian or sides with the forces of wealth and privilege all the time, however giving your kids something that you didn’t have yourself is a tremendously emotive and important act that translates into fanatical loyalty for the party of the Public School (even if there is a hierarchy within the Public School bracket meaning Etonians, Harrovians, and Wykehamists look down on those who went to Bedales, Ampleforth or Repton).
Another brick in the Wall Game – a lifestyle aspired to by many but will only ever possible for the precious few
What does a good insight into these groups tell us? Recently my own party the Lib Dems has targeted the Blue Wall with two approaches – highlighting the failure of the NHS, a public services play, and a poster pointing out the god awfulness of Lee Anderson, a rare foray into identity politics. Neither of these will resonate with the Conservative hardcore – that’s okay because they’re aimed at soft Tories and floating voters, the groups that are most likely to switch anyway. But what if you could peel off hardcore Tories too? What would work? You have to know them, know what their concerns and priorities are and beat the local Tory party by parking your tanks on their lawn – the pocketbook lawn. The tax obsessives and benefits fetishists are currently unhappy – they’re unhappy with economic mediocrity and rising inflation in the same way you are. They’re counting up the cost of rising utility bills, food inflation and rising mortgage payments the same as everyone else. If you can persuade parts of the hardcore that they could have it so much better by voting elsewhere that really would be a death knell for the Conservatives this year and next.
Like a drunk divorcee, Britain staggers through another political crisis, thanks to Liz Truss’s blink-and-you’ll-miss-it premiership. The mountain of speculation includes the possibility that Boris Johnson could return as Prime Minister. Obviously this would be terrible for Britain, his conduct in office and the outcomes he’s wrought on the country should disbar him from being a parish councillor, let alone get the top job. On the face of it, Johnson shares many characteristics with senior Tories – Old Etonian, Oxford humanities degree. In many ways, however, he is a one-off, we’re unlikely to see someone like him in public life ever again and I’ll explain why. To my mind there are five major social taboos, you’ll almost never hear someone say the following in polite society:
I’m a bad parent I’m bad at my job I’m a bad lover I’m a bad pet owner I’m a bad driver
All five apply to Johnson, it takes a lot of effort to be bad at all five and most people who are tend to spend long periods in prison, not Downing Street. Let’s look at his serial failings that means he’s one of the few that breaks ALL the taboos.
Boris Johnson with his first wife Allegra Mostyn-Owen
I’m a bad parent To an extent this one is shrouded in mystery as no one other than Johnson and his family knows exactly how many children he has. It’s in the public domain that he has seven children by three different mothers – his wives Marina Wheeler and Carrie Symonds, and his mistress Helen Macintyre. Johnson actually went to court to stop disclosure of the existence of his daughter, Stephanie Macintyre (born 2009), the judge presiding said of Johnson, “the father’s infidelities resulted in the conception of children on two occasions”. The second child might have been Petronella Wyatt’s, except Johnson pressured Wyatt to have an abortion during their four-year affair, when news of this broke he was sacked from the shadow cabinet by Michael Howard in 2004. While having several children by several mothers is not a crime, Johnson remains the only Prime Minister in history unwilling to give a straight answer to the question, “How many children do you have?”
I’m bad at my job Not everyone that enters politics has a glittering career beforehand, however those that have hired him, or have worked alongside him have a special level of invective for Johnson. The two fundamentals of his pre-politics career are that he was sacked as a journalist twice for lying. His former boss Max Hastings, a staunch Conservative (although a traditional One-Nation Tory, not a Brexit loving, shady Think Tank crony propellorhead modern one) has gone to great lengths to explain why Johnson is unfit for office, on the basis of his shortcomings when working for The Telegraph. Perhaps the best anti-endorsement comes from Rory Stewart, who was a junior minister at the start of Johnson’s premiership. He said of Johnson, “He’s probably the best liar we’ve ever had as a prime minister. He knows a hundred different ways to lie. He lies to his wife, he lies to his employers, he lies to his colleagues, he lies to Parliament. And often he does it in different ways, sometimes he does it by pretending to be ignorant, sometimes he does it with a joke, sometimes he does it by ignoring the question.” For my own part, as a construction journalist, Johnson has a special level of stupidity and ineffectiveness. One of his first acts as Mayor of London was to cancel the DLR extension to Dagenham Dock, this effectively killed off development in the Thames Gateway, which didn’t recover for nearly a decade afterwards, I know people who lost their jobs as a result of this. Johnson has gone on to suggest any number of harebrained schemes that are not feasible and will never be built – The Scotland – Ireland bridge, The Cross-Channel Bridge, the Estuary Airport – sign off on follies that are of no practical use such as the ArcelorMittal Orbit slide and the Thames Cable car, and fail to green light genuinely useful projects that have been on the drawing board forever like the Bakerloo Line extension or Crossrail 2. Johnson leaves a trail of broken infrastructure promises everywhere he goes – you’ll be waiting a while for those 40 new hospitals that were a manifesto commitment in 2019.
The ArcelorMittal Orbit – showy and of no practical use, just like Johnson
I’m a bad lover I’m not going to lower the tone by going into detail about his performance in bed, though Jennifer Arcuri is less than complimentary about Johnson’s attributes. The fact is, however, that Johnson has been a serial adulterer and a singularly callous one at that. His second wife Marina Wheeler was suffering with cancer when Johnson decided to trade her in for a younger model – Carrie Symonds. Johnson’s treatment of Wheeler was pretty low, however, it’s reasonable to assume that Johnson had an affair with Wheeler while married to his first wife Allegra Mostyn-Owen, as he and Wheeler got married in 1993 only 12 days after Johnson divorced Mostyn-Owen. Aside from Helen Macintyre and Petronella Wyatt, Johnson is known to have had an affair with Anna Fazackerley in 2006.
I’m a bad pet owner As a nation of animal lovers this could really get peoples’ backs up! It’s often said that you can tell how people treat people through how they treat their pets. Whilst in Downing Street the Johnson family acquired a dog – Dilyn. If you’re being responsible this was a highly dubious move on Johnson’s part – dogs are high maintenance and surely you’d have to put in a minimum of an hour a day to do it justice – time a Prime Minister does not have. Word on the Downing Street grapevine was that Johnson has no enthusiasm for dogs and became increasingly irate about Dilyn, a dog receiving little love or attention from its owner and probably stressed out by being in close contact with dozens of strangers in its own home every day. The dog was just for show, to curry favour with his rural base. In this respect, his behaviour puts him even lower than Donald Trump. Trump is distinguished by being one of very few presidents not to have a dog in the White House. When challenged about this Trump said he didn’t have the time for a dog and his voters didn’t seem to care. Even Donald Trump has a better concept of animal welfare than Johnson.
The Fiat 128 – Johnson’s student car, because he doesn’t play by society’s rules
I’m a bad driver Perhaps the most costly admission you could make – if you admitted liability in a collision with top-of-the-range new car you could kiss goodbye to £50,000. Johnson’s rebel who makes his own rules behaviour started at school and was carried forward to student years where he owned a Belgian-registered Fiat 128 car. Parking restrictions were for wimps, Johnson boasted in his 2007 book ‘In Life in the Fast Lane: The Johnson Guide to Cars, “Before traffic wardens became bonus-hungry maniacs, and when it was still rare for a student to own any kind of car at all, I parked all over the place, my favourite spot in Oxford being the yellow lines by the squash courts in Jowett Walk. Sometimes, it is true, I got a ticket. But what did I care? The Stallion (the car’s nickname) had Belgian plates. I let them pile in drifts against the windscreen until – in the days before they were even sheathed in plastic – the fines just disintegrated in the rain.” The book also shows a cavalier attitude to road safety, railing against telephoning/texting while driving laws, he claims this is no different from changing the radio station. Why was Johnson asked to write a book about driving? For a few years he was a motoring correspondent, turning in a regular column for GQ. His editors were entertained by his copy but after a while they spotted something really odd – they checked and counterchecked his mileage before and after ‘test drives’ – often they’d be exactly the same. He wrote about several cars he’d never set foot in. GQ let him continue as a correspondent, however, because he’s a bit of a laugh and, well, that’s our Boris isn’t it?
Boris Johnson walking out to deliver his resignation speech this summer
Our Boris, privileged, amoral, lazy, greedy, disloyal, incompetent, uniquely awful – our next Prime Minister?
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