In the end it wasn’t close, and it was the result that anyone with an ounce of sense was expecting. Sadiq Khan was returned for a third term as London Mayor, my prediction was he’d win by between 8 to 10%, and that I wouldn’t be surprised if the margin was a bit over 10. I wasn’t far off, he won by 11.1%. Not the greatest of shocks, but these elections are still worth dissecting, as per my previous blog the political agenda in London has moved on hugely in just three years and we’re now dealing with a different electoral system for Mayor.
The regressive move back to First Past the Post seems particularly absurd as Londoners have the luxury of voting in Westminster elections, borough council elections and city Mayor elections. Given that abundance of choice, many like to indulge themselves when it comes to choosing who runs the city. In 2021 just over 12% voted for candidates outside the top four parties.
These elections are a vehicle where minor parties such as WEP, the Animal Rights Party or Rejoin EU get their voice heard more than anywhere else. If you like a plurality of views, and who doesn’t, the supplementary vote system was working out just fine, even if the ballot got a little crowded in 2021.
Busman vs Petrolhead
It’s probably difficult to find two more diametrically opposed people from the two major parties than Sadiq Khan and Susan Hall. Their occupational heritage says it all. Khan is the son of a bus driver, Hall is the daughter of a car garage owner. On her wikipedia entry it says Hall learnt how to strip a car engine when a teenager (it says nothing of her cultural or sporting tastes, funnily enough), like a few particularly right wing Tories she’s played the War on the Motorist card to the hilt. If this election was a referendum on anti-car measures such as ULEZ, London’s eczema and asthma sufferers who are triggered by photochemical smog, came out on top.
Having lived in London as a student I recognised Hall as a particular type of Londoner – i.e. one born and brought up there, but doesn’t actually like the city. How could you explain it? Perhaps it’s a case of thinking the grass is always greener. The world class restaurants, art house cinemas, bustling night life, economic dynamism, vibrant diversity mean little to people like Hall.
I’m extremely glad she didn’t win, quite apart from her Trump lite agenda she would’ve been a terrible ambassador for London on the world stage, summoning up as much enthusiasm for our capital as a piece of cardboard would. It’s striking how much an unpopular candidate affects people’s behaviour – in 2019 many people across London told me unprompted they’d vote Conservative because they were scared of Corbyn.
In the last few days Khan received a gift – a historical poll resurfaced showing his lead down to 1%. A significant number of habitual Lib Dem voters, even former members, told me they had to vote for Khan to erase any chance of Hall becoming mayor. I never thought that was remotely possible, but I understand their fears.
Why London is different
If you look back at General Election maps of the 1960s and 1970s the Conservatives win a surprising amount of seats in London, it was roughly in line with the rest of the country. Not any more, though. Demographics have a lot to do with it, London’s population is younger, has more graduates, more ethnic minorities, more public transport users and more private renters than the national average. All of those factors benefit the left, whether that’s Labour, Lib Dems or Greens. So the Tories are really up against it in the capital, and you can measure that by the stature of the candidates they’ve chosen for London mayor.
To start with one got the impression they were taking it seriously, choosing the likes of Steve Norris, Boris Johnson and Zac Goldsmith. I’ve met Norris, and though I’d never vote Conservative, I can see why he got as far as being their candidate. He’s a very genial, jovial character who could really work a room if given a chance, I can’t imagine Hall would ever win over floating voters in the same way.
You get the impression that in choosing two low profile candidates, not even back bench MPs, in Bailey and Hall, that the Conservatives have tuned out when it comes to London and are hoping for a Red Wall miracle to save them at some point in the future. When discussing the likely result on the day before with my campaign colleagues I said, “The only thing the Conservatives have going for them in London is Reform UK’s vote will be lower.” While the joke was on me because Reform won a GLA seat, this was, to an extent true as Reform polled only 3.1% in the mayor contest, behind the Lib Dems and Greens, whom they are outperforming in national opinion polls.
The Conservative party has a remarkable capacity for reinventing itself, and regenerating after election defeats, I’m sure we’ll see that process at work after the General Election but it will take a long time before they’re competitive in London beyond the exurbs.
The major 2024 candidates at hustings, Count Binface and Sadiq Khan, Gareth Roberts and Hina Bokhari both heading for City Hall
The Liberal case for London
A few activists have asked the Lib Dem leadership to be bolder in the context of Conservative implosion and Labour timidity. We saw exactly that in the London Lib Dem campaign – a manifesto focused on reforming the blue light services – the Met Police and London Fire Brigade. It was unprecedented to see a politician from a mainstream party run on a platform of police reform and it set us apart from the other parties.
Personally I’m comfortable with the policy here, it’s not anti-police, it’s a case of us saying the Met Police can be different and better. If there was a flaw in this at all, such a message would prove popular right in the heart of London where, with the exception of Southwark, our activist base is not huge. We want to say to victims of crime, or of police harassment that we’re on their side, however it requires a lot of work to get into Waterloo, Brixton, Barbican, and the World’s End to sell that message thoroughly.
For the Lib Dems this time round the major success metrics were how we compared to the Greens. In London there’s a significant policy divide with us Lib Dems looking to ways to build more houses (especially social housing) and the Greens trying to pretend that everything but building is the way to solve the housing crisis – proposing rent controls (unworkable) and filling empty properties (there’s virtually none left). Perhaps a new and uninspiring candidate – Zoë Garbett – and the NIMBY stance cost the Greens as Lib Dems’ Rob Blackie closed a 85,000 gap from 2021 to finish a whisker ahead in the Mayor vote.
Lib Dems vs the Greens – the real battle
In the last few Mayor and assembly elections the Greens have done well, maybe it’s because the notion of a cleaner greener city is a ‘nice idea’, it’s a feel good aspirational move to vote Green on the part of many Londoners. If we Lib Dems are leapfrogging them it’s because we better represent London’s diversity – reaching out to EU citizens especially – and because their housing and transport polices are not credible (the Greens want to scrap London’s travel zones, though they’ve been in place for 40 years and are generally accepted).
Instead of trying to reinvent the wheel Lib Dems are sticking to the basics – calling for more step free access to the tube and more fare revenue to go back into maintenance now tube trains are breaking down more frequently, along with points failures.
How did Rob Blackie do? Last time out we had an excellent candidate in Luisa Porritt who suffered from restrictions on campaigning, so we were starting from a low base. I thought Rob brought a lot of energy to the campaign and he instinctively ‘gets’ London in the way Hall doesn’t. He embraces London and wants it to play to its strengths.
He was bold enough to set an agenda instead of react to the media or what the candidates from big two did. I met Rob briefly in Southfields on the day before the election – he showed his election day schedule – it involved visiting 12 different London boroughs over the course of 12 hours. Some might say that’s messing with the laws of physics if you know London transport.
While all our candidates put in a huge effort covering the 14 GLA constituencies I’d particularly like to congratulate Gareth Roberts, Sue Wixley, Trish Fivey, Gita Bapat, and Christophe Noblet who achieved our main aim of beating the Greens in their seats, with an honourable mention to Chris French who beat the Conservatives in his seat.
returnoftheliberal 